欧佩克预计到2045年全球石油需求将飙升23%

据油价网6月26日报道，欧佩克秘书长预计，到2045年全球石油日需求量将增至1.1亿桶，较目前水平增长23%。

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此前，IEA预测，需求增长将大幅放缓，需求峰值即将到来。

IEA和欧佩克都认为，在可预见的未来，亚洲将推动石油需求，但这两个机构在电动汽车和其他技术的影响上似乎存在分歧。

到2045年，原油日需求将增加至1.1亿桶，较目前水平增加23%。这是路透社援引欧佩克秘书长所言。

一周前，IEA预测未来几年石油需求增长将放缓，从今年的240万桶/天减少到2028年的40万桶/天，需求峰值即将到来。

IEA的悲观预测是基于这样一种观点，即电动汽车的加速部署、燃油效率的提高和“其他技术”将损害需求增长。欧佩克似乎不这么认为。两机构似乎一致认为，在可预见的未来，亚洲，尤其是印度，将推动全球石油需求。

然而，根据亚洲大国国有石油巨头最近的一份报告，即使是电动汽车也可能破坏这种增长。这家国有巨头的研究部门预测，由于电动汽车销量的增长，今年的石油需求增长将低于此前的预期。

IEA在其报告中也对电动汽车销售发出了警告。该机构在本月早些时候的报告中表示，只有通过家庭或工作场所的私人充电，或公共充电站这种方便和负担得起的基础设施来满足充电需求，电动汽车销量才能持续增长。

与此同时，大多数预测人士认为，即使电动汽车开始削弱对燃料的需求，石化行业对石油需求在中期内仍将强劲。

郝芬 译自 油价网

原文如下:

OPEC Sees Global Oil Demand Surging 23% By 2045

*The Secretary General of OPEC sees oil demand rising to 110 million barrels per day by 2045, an 23% increase from current level.

*The forecast comes in the wake of a prediction from the IEA that demand growth will slow dramatically and peak demand is looming.

*Both the IEA and OPEC see oil demand being driven by Asia in the observable future, but the groups appear to differ on the impact of EVs and other technologies.

Crude oil demand is set to rise to 110 million barrels daily by 2045, which would be a 23% increase from current levels.

This is what the Secretary General of OPEC, Haitham al Ghais, said today, as quoted by Reuters.

The forecast comes a week after the International Energy Agency predicted oil demand growth will slow in the next few years, shrinking from 2.4 million bpd this year to 400,000 barrels daily in 2028, with peak demand in sight.

The IEA’s bearish forecast was driven by a view that the accelerated deployment of electric vehicles, higher fuel efficiency, and “other technologies” would hurt demand growth. OPEC, it appears, begs to differ. What the two seem to agree on is that Asia, and India in particular, will drive global oil demand for the observable future.

However, even that growth may be undermined by electric vehicles, according to a recent report by a state-owned major magnate in Asia. The research arm of the state-owned major forecasted that oil demand growth this year would be lower than previously expected because of the increase in EV sales.

The IEA sounded a warning note about EV sales in its report, too. “Growth in EV sales can only be sustained if charging demand is met by accessible and affordable infrastructure, either through private charging in homes or at work, or publicly accessible charging stations,” the agency said in its report from earlier this month.

Demand for oil from the petrochemicals industry, meanwhile, is seen to continue strong over the medium term by most forecasters, even if EVs begin to undermine demand for fuels.

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